Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 64.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 15.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.17%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a HNK Rijeka win it was 0-1 (4.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
