SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Denmark | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Finland | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 7 | -24 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Denmark | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Finland | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 47.01%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 23.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Slovenia |
47.01% ( 2.71) | 29.24% ( -0.57) | 23.75% ( -2.14) |
| Both teams to score 39.5% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.97% ( 0.51) | 66.04% ( -0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.39% ( 0.35) | 84.61% ( -0.35) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.56% ( 1.7) | 28.44% ( -1.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.8% ( 2.09) | 64.21% ( -2.09) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.21% ( -1.72) | 44.8% ( 1.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.23% ( -1.42) | 80.77% ( 1.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Slovenia |
| 1-0 @ 16.01% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.73)2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.22)3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.49)3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.25)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.12)Other @ 1.48% Total : 47% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 12.74% ( -0.24)2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.39% Total : 29.24% | 0-1 @ 10.23% ( -0.7) 1-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.36)0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.5)1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.19)Other @ 1.76% Total : 23.75% |
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