Without a victory for nearly two decades, San Marino's winless run stands at 132 matches ahead of their trip to Windsor Park, where they are set to be dealt a seventh straight defeat in Group H. Northern Ireland often struggle to score, but home advantage and a relative lack of pressure should help them comfortably see off one of football's smallest minnows.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 95.85%. A draw had a probability of 3.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (16.76%) and 2-0 (15.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (2.46%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 18.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
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