SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Finland | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 6 | -21 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Finland | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 6 | -21 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 95.85%. A draw had a probability of 3.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (16.76%) and 2-0 (15.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (2.46%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 18.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
| Result | ||
| Northern Ireland | Draw | San Marino |
95.85% ( -0.03) | 3.73% ( 0.02) | 0.42% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 11.78% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.55% ( -0.03) | 28.45% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.7% ( -0.03) | 49.3% ( 0.04) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.2% ( -0.01) | 2.8% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 87.2% ( -0.03) | 12.81% ( 0.03) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 12.12% ( 0.13) | 87.88% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 0.77% ( 0.02) | 99.24% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Northern Ireland | Draw | San Marino |
| 3-0 @ 18.74% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 16.76% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 15.72% 5-0 @ 11.98% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 8.79% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.03)7-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)8-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 95.83% | 0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0) 1-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 3.73% | Other @ 0.42% Total : 0.42% |
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