While Finland have managed to win just three of their last 15 games, Slovenia have lost only two of their previous 14, so we expect the visitors to extend their winning streak by notching a narrow victory in Helsinki.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 36.33%. A win for Finland had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.2%) and 1-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Finland win was 1-0 (12.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
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