SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Finland | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 6 | -21 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Denmark | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Finland | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino | 6 | -21 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.97%. A win for Finland had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovenia | Draw | Finland |
43.97% ( 2.35) | 27.51% ( -0.46) | 28.52% ( -1.9) |
| Both teams to score 47.16% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.92% ( 0.93) | 58.08% ( -0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.25% ( 0.73) | 78.75% ( -0.73) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.75% ( 1.69) | 26.24% ( -1.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.65% ( 2.2) | 61.35% ( -2.21) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.94% ( -0.96) | 36.05% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.16% ( -1) | 72.84% ( 0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovenia | Draw | Finland |
| 1-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.5)3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.3)3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.07% Total : 43.96% | 1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.34)2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.51% | 0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.61) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.45)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.94% Total : 28.52% |
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