SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for England had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest England win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | England |
37.83% ( 0.06) | 27.3% ( 0.04) | 34.87% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.88% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.37% ( -0.16) | 55.63% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.21% ( -0.13) | 76.79% ( 0.13) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.54% ( -0.04) | 28.46% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.77% ( -0.05) | 64.23% ( 0.05) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.73% ( -0.14) | 30.28% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.55% ( -0.17) | 66.45% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.85% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 2.71% Total : 37.83% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.29% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 34.86% |
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