SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 67.14%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | Iceland |
67.14% ( 0.83) | 19.41% ( -0.2) | 13.45% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 49.32% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.24% ( -0.52) | 43.75% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.85% ( -0.51) | 66.14% ( 0.51) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.92% ( 0.08) | 12.08% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.38% ( 0.16) | 37.61% ( -0.16) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.09% ( -1.26) | 43.91% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.95% ( -1.05) | 80.05% ( 1.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.33) 1-0 @ 11.21% ( 0.29)2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 3.63% 3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.35% Total : 67.13% | 1-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.87% Total : 19.41% | 0-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.35% Total : 13.45% |
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