SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 24.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Turkey win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Netherlands in this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | Turkey |
52.49% ( 0.69) | 23.28% ( -0.13) | 24.23% ( -0.56) |
| Both teams to score 56.56% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.93% ( 0.02) | 44.07% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.54% ( 0.01) | 66.46% ( -0.02) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.2% ( 0.25) | 16.8% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.24% ( 0.45) | 46.76% ( -0.45) |
| Turkey Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.97% ( -0.46) | 32.03% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.51% ( -0.52) | 68.49% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | Turkey |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.49% | 1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.38% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.27% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.61% Total : 24.23% |
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