Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 89.25%. A draw had a probability of 7.4% and a win for Den Bosch had a probability of 3.33%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.4%), while for a Den Bosch win it was 1-2 (1.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.06) 
