SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.46%) and 1-0 (4.86%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
44.14% ( -0.28) | 21.44% ( 0.04) | 34.41% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 70.86% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.54% ( -0.14) | 28.45% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.69% ( -0.17) | 49.3% ( 0.16) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.11% ( -0.15) | 13.88% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.7% ( -0.29) | 41.29% ( 0.29) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.28% ( 0.04) | 17.72% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.62% ( 0.08) | 48.38% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.79% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.7% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 44.14% | 1-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 7.18% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.67% Total : 21.44% | 1-2 @ 7.27% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.2% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 4.14% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.18% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.03% Total : 34.41% |
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