SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.24%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 17.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.74%) and 0-1 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Groningen win it was 2-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
17.53% ( 0.29) | 19.22% ( 0.21) | 63.24% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 60.23% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.63% ( -0.51) | 34.37% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.72% ( -0.57) | 56.28% ( 0.57) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.21% ( -0) | 32.8% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.64% ( -0) | 69.36% ( 0) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.62% ( -0.27) | 10.39% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.09% ( -0.61) | 33.91% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 3.8% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.02% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.03% Total : 17.53% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 19.22% | 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.03)0-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 7.35% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 6.59% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 4.16% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.73% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 2.32% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 1.89% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.05)2-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.17% Total : 63.24% |
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