Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caldas win with a probability of 44.67%. A win for Mafra had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caldas win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Mafra win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
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