Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 36.99%. A win for Hercules had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Hercules win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.07) 
