SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Hercules had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Hercules win was 1-0 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hercules | Draw | Burgos |
30.56% ( -1.45) | 28.29% ( -0.13) | 41.15% ( 1.59) |
| Both teams to score 45.95% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.93% ( 0.11) | 60.07% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.71% ( 0.08) | 80.29% ( -0.08) |
| Hercules Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.45% ( -1.01) | 35.55% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.68% ( -1.06) | 72.32% ( 1.06) |
| Burgos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( 0.96) | 28.7% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.47% ( 1.18) | 64.53% ( -1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hercules | Draw | Burgos |
| 1-0 @ 10.55% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 6.81% ( -0.22)2-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.33)3-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.05% Total : 30.56% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.28% | 0-1 @ 12.73% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 8.22% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 7.95% ( 0.38)1-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.24)2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.65% Total : 41.14% |
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