SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Spartak Trnava win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spartak Trnava | Draw | Aston Villa |
36.39% ( 0.04) | 25.32% ( 0.01) | 38.29% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 56.59% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.85% ( -0.03) | 47.14% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.62% ( -0.03) | 69.38% ( 0.03) |
| Spartak Trnava Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.71% ( 0.01) | 25.28% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.95% ( 0.01) | 60.05% ( -0.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.75% ( -0.04) | 24.25% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.39% ( -0.05) | 58.6% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spartak Trnava | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 1.75% Total : 36.39% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0)1-3 @ 4% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.29% |
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