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Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Selhurst Park
AV

Crystal Palace
5 - 0
Aston Villa

Mateta (9', 39', 63'), Eze (54', 69')
Andersen (24')
FT(HT: 2-0)

McGinn (18'), Digne (58'), Luiz (73'), Lenglet (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolves 1-3 Crystal Palace
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.

Result
Crystal PalaceDrawAston Villa
40.56% (-1.837 -1.84) 23.77% (0.02 0.02) 35.67% (1.819 1.82)
Both teams to score 62.15% (0.384 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.09% (0.318 0.32)39.91% (-0.315 -0.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.73% (0.328 0.33)62.27% (-0.327 -0.33)
Crystal Palace Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.04% (-0.684 -0.68)19.96% (0.686 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.87% (-1.114 -1.11)52.13% (1.116 1.12)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.65% (1.136 1.14)22.35% (-1.133 -1.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.16% (1.672 1.67)55.84% (-1.671 -1.67)
Score Analysis
    Crystal Palace 40.56%
    Aston Villa 35.67%
    Draw 23.77%
Crystal PalaceDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.21 -0.21)
1-0 @ 7.19% (-0.264 -0.26)
2-0 @ 5.79% (-0.343 -0.34)
3-1 @ 4.66% (-0.216 -0.22)
3-2 @ 3.49% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.11% (-0.255 -0.26)
4-1 @ 1.88% (-0.129 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.41% (-0.047 -0.05)
4-0 @ 1.25% (-0.132 -0.13)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 40.56%
1-1 @ 10.77% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.5% (0.063 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.46% (-0.065 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.74% (0.038 0.04)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.77%
1-2 @ 8.07% (0.248 0.25)
0-1 @ 6.69% (0.126 0.13)
0-2 @ 5.01% (0.257 0.26)
1-3 @ 4.03% (0.252 0.25)
2-3 @ 3.25% (0.137 0.14)
0-3 @ 2.5% (0.206 0.21)
1-4 @ 1.51% (0.142 0.14)
2-4 @ 1.22% (0.09 0.09)
0-4 @ 0.94% (0.106 0.11)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 35.67%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Wolves 1-3 Crystal Palace
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 4-0 Man Utd
Monday, May 6 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 5-2 West Ham
Sunday, April 21 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Liverpool 0-1 Crystal Palace
Sunday, April 14 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-3 Liverpool
Monday, May 13 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Olympiacos 2-0 Aston Villa
Thursday, May 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, May 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-4 Olympiacos
Thursday, May 2 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth
Sunday, April 21 at 3pm in Premier League


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