SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.56% ( -1.84) | 23.77% ( 0.02) | 35.67% ( 1.82) |
| Both teams to score 62.15% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.09% ( 0.32) | 39.91% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.73% ( 0.33) | 62.27% ( -0.33) |
| Crystal Palace Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.04% ( -0.68) | 19.96% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.87% ( -1.11) | 52.13% ( 1.12) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.65% ( 1.14) | 22.35% ( -1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.16% ( 1.67) | 55.84% ( -1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.22)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.26)4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.1% Total : 40.56% | 1-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.77% | 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.25)2-3 @ 3.25% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.14)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.46% Total : 35.67% |
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