Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao Santarem win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao Santarem win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao Santarem would win this match.
-0.15) 
0.07) 
