Saturday's match is tricky to call, as Estrela's home form betters only four clubs in the Primeira Liga, while Gil Vicente's road return is nothing to write home about.
However, the away side's recent four-match undefeated run — with four points picked up from their recent six — points to them finding some form at the backend of the season, and a stalemate could be on the cards in Amadora.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.27%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.01) 
