Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 51.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
