Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a East Timor win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Nepal had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a East Timor win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Nepal win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.