SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Serbia | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Hungary | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Czech Republic | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Moldova | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Czech Republic win with a probability of 42.76%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Montenegro had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Czech Republic win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.7%) and 1-2 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Montenegro win it was 1-0 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Czech Republic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montenegro | Draw | Czech Republic |
27.98% ( -15.98) | 29.26% ( 6.8) | 42.76% ( 9.18) |
| Both teams to score 42.26% ( -24.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.91% ( -30.17) | 64.09% ( 30.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.75% ( -27.47) | 83.25% ( 27.46) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.18% ( -23.73) | 39.82% ( 23.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.51% ( -30.99) | 76.49% ( 30.98) |
| Czech Republic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.23% ( -9.09) | 29.77% ( 9.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.16% ( -12.57) | 65.84% ( 12.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montenegro | Draw | Czech Republic |
| 1-0 @ 10.91% ( 4.83) 2-1 @ 6.09% ( -2.66)2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.53)3-1 @ 1.87% ( -3.46)3-0 @ 1.54% ( -1.84)3-2 @ 1.13% ( -3.07)Other @ 1.41% Total : 27.97% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 3.64) 0-0 @ 11.85% ( 8.52)2-2 @ 3.69% ( -3.21)Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.25% | 0-1 @ 14.36% ( 9.11) 0-2 @ 8.7% ( 4.57)1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0.46)0-3 @ 3.52% ( 1.34)1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.73)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -2.13)0-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.58)Other @ 1.39% Total : 42.76% |
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