Serbia will be the favourites on Monday, but we are finding it difficult to separate the two teams in this contest. It would not be a shock to see an away or indeed a home victory, but a draw is a decent result for both sides, and we are predicting a stalemate in this Euro 2024 qualification fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 49.15%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Montenegro had a probability of 24.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Montenegro win it was 1-0 (8.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
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