SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Tahiti had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.17%) and 0-2 (5.97%). The likeliest Tahiti win was 2-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tahiti | Draw | New Caledonia |
36.72% ( 0.03) | 24.85% ( 0.07) | 38.42% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 58.28% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.01% ( -0.31) | 44.98% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.66% ( -0.3) | 67.33% ( 0.3) |
| Tahiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.89% ( -0.13) | 24.1% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.6% ( -0.18) | 58.4% ( 0.18) |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.79% ( -0.19) | 23.21% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.89% ( -0.27) | 57.1% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tahiti | Draw | New Caledonia |
| 2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.99% Total : 36.72% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.85% | 1-2 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.17% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.17% Total : 38.42% |
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