Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 49.63%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 0-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Papua New Guinea in this match.
