Alaves are flying at the moment, and this is shaping up to be a very tough match for Girona. Michel's side will be desperate to claim second, but they have already secured Champions League football for next season, so there is no major pressure on them late in the campaign. It would not be a surprise to see a home or indeed an away win, but we fancy the points to be shared on Friday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 37.62%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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