SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 47.62% | 25.71% | 26.67% |
| Both teams to score 51.15% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.69% | 52.31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.99% | 74% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.03% | 21.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.73% | 55.26% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.55% | 34.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.84% | 71.15% |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 11.46% 2-1 @ 9.26% 2-0 @ 8.69% 3-1 @ 4.68% 3-0 @ 4.39% 3-2 @ 2.49% 4-1 @ 1.77% 4-0 @ 1.66% 4-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.26% Total : 47.61% | 1-1 @ 12.22% 0-0 @ 7.57% 2-2 @ 4.94% Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 8.07% 1-2 @ 6.51% 0-2 @ 4.3% 1-3 @ 2.32% 2-3 @ 1.75% 0-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.19% Total : 26.67% |
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