Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
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