Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 57.49%. A win for Salford City had a probability of 21.49% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 1-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Salford City win was 1-2 (5.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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