SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 52.4%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 24.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Notts County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Notts County.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Carlisle United |
52.4% ( -0.05) | 23.47% ( 0.01) | 24.13% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.79% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.96% ( -0) | 45.04% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.61% ( -0) | 67.39% ( 0) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.82% ( -0.02) | 17.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.56% ( -0.03) | 47.44% ( 0.03) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.36% ( 0.03) | 32.64% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.81% ( 0.04) | 69.19% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 9.88% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.7% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.2% 4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.25% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 3.88% Total : 52.4% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.61% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.45% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.48% | 0-1 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.31% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0)Other @ 2.48% Total : 24.13% |
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