SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Notts County |
32.63% ( 0.09) | 23.77% ( 0.08) | 43.59% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 61.25% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.28% ( -0.38) | 40.71% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.9% ( -0.38) | 63.09% ( 0.38) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.58% ( -0.13) | 24.41% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.16% ( -0.18) | 58.83% ( 0.18) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( -0.23) | 18.96% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.5% ( -0.38) | 50.49% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Notts County |
| 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.6% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.78% Total : 32.63% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.77% | 1-2 @ 9.02% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.08% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.38% Total : 43.59% |
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