Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scunthorpe United win with a probability of 39.95%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scunthorpe United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Scunthorpe United in this match.