SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | MK Dons |
44.82% ( -0.19) | 24.44% ( 0.17) | 30.74% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 57.99% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.39% ( -0.76) | 44.6% ( 0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.03% ( -0.73) | 66.97% ( 0.73) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.97% ( -0.39) | 20.02% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.77% ( -0.63) | 52.23% ( 0.63) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.51% ( -0.36) | 27.48% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.01% ( -0.47) | 62.98% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | MK Dons |
| 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.94% Total : 44.82% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.43% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.16)0-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.92% Total : 30.74% |
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