SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Shabab |
47.72% ( 0.4) | 23.81% ( -0.09) | 28.47% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 58.72% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.99% ( 0.23) | 43.02% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.59% ( 0.23) | 65.42% ( -0.22) |
| Al-Nassr Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.81% ( 0.25) | 18.2% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.8% ( 0.42) | 49.2% ( -0.41) |
| Al Shabab Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.78% ( -0.09) | 28.22% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.08% ( -0.12) | 63.93% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Shabab |
| 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.57% Total : 47.72% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.81% | 1-2 @ 7% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 28.47% |
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