Over two months after an embarrassing first-leg defeat, Atletico Paranaense should be a different beast on home soil and desperate to overturn a deficit in order to reach the fourth round.
Hardly convincing in the third tier recently, Ypiranga will need a perfect performance combined with plenty of luck to advance on Saturday evening, a mixture that we are struggling to envisage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 72.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Ypiranga Erechim had a probability of 9.67%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.71%) and 3-0 (10.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for a Ypiranga Erechim win it was 0-1 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletico Paranaense.
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