Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Aurora had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Aurora win was 1-0 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.07) 
