Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 1-0 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.02) 
