Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 38.4%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 34.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.15) 
