Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 54.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 20.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
0.91) 
-0.12) 
