Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.02) 
