Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 48.31%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.01) 
