Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 32.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.03) 
