Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
