Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 50.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
-0.39) 
0.19) 
