Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 48.52%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.06) 
