Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Lusitania FC Lourosa had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Lusitania FC Lourosa win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
0.53) 
-0.1) 
