Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Felgueiras 1932 win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Felgueiras 1932 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Felgueiras 1932 in this match.
-0.53) 
0.13) 
