Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 55.86%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Pevidem had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Pevidem win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.16) 
