Although Derby lost out to Shrewsbury in the reverse fixture, we expect the Rams to prove too strong for their opponents in Saturday's contest, especially as they have won seven of their last nine home league matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 74.64%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.22%) and 3-0 (10.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
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