SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury Town | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Port Vale | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Derby County | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Bolton Wanderers | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Derby County |
29.4% ( -0.01) | 27.44% ( 0) | 43.16% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.81% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.53% ( -0.03) | 57.47% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.72% ( -0.02) | 78.27% ( 0.02) |
| Shrewsbury Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.95% ( -0.03) | 35.05% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.21% ( -0.03) | 71.79% ( 0.03) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.61% ( -0.01) | 26.39% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.46% ( -0.01) | 61.54% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 9.7% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.08% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.37% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.78% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0)Other @ 2.12% Total : 29.4% | 1-1 @ 12.91% 0-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.61% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.82% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.65% ( 0)2-3 @ 2% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.07% Total : 43.16% |
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