SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 9.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.1%) and 0-3 (10.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.91%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
9.65% ( -0.01) | 16.63% ( 0.15) | 73.72% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 45.99% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.67% ( -0.77) | 41.33% ( 0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.27% ( -0.78) | 63.73% ( 0.78) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.94% ( -0.54) | 49.06% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16% ( -0.38) | 83.99% ( 0.38) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.29% ( -0.23) | 9.71% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.65% ( -0.54) | 32.35% ( 0.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.23% Total : 9.65% | 1-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.67% Total : 16.63% | 0-2 @ 12.95% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.27)0-3 @ 10.07% ( 0.05)1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 7.17% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 5.87% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 2.74% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.95% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.05)0-6 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.35% Total : 73.71% |
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